Analysis of the Current Status of the Energy Sector in Turkey

Assessment of Turkey's current energy sector situation is essential for the interpretation of optimization results and the validation of model hypotheses. This section provides an elaborate assessment of installed capacity, generation patterns, renewable resource potential, import dependence, and institutional structure, which serve as baseline conditions.

Consequently, these baseline conditions will be evaluated against all transition pathways.

Data on Installed Capacity (2000-2024)

Turkey has seen a 25-fold increase in its electricity generation capacity. The electricity-generating capacity increased from 27.3 GW in 2000 to 115.2 GW in 2024, a six percent CAGR. The expansion occurs due to economic development, population increase, and industrialization.

Consequently, there is always capacity addition to meet the increasing demand for electricity.

Technology Composition (2000-2024):

The installed capacity in technology categories in the structural change benchmark years where significant developments occurred in Turkey's generation mix is shown in tbl:renewable-energy-potential-summary-2024.

: Renewable Energy Potential Summary (2024) {#tbl:renewable-energy-potential-summary-2024}

Main Observations:

1. The proportion of renewable energy in Turkey rose from 43.6% in 2000 to 54.2% in 2024, largely dependent on the hydroelectric power capacity expansion from 11.9 GW in 2000 to 32.1 GW in 2024. The wind energy and solar energy share began to increase rapidly after 2010. This growth was achieved through the application of Turkey's YEKDEM feed-in tariff application in favour of renewables.
2. Gas capacity was 2.9 GW in 2000, which saw a tenfold increase to 28.9 GW by 2024. Consequently, Turkey's second-largest generation source is natural gas. Gas can play a 'bridge' role in the renewable transition, providing some flexibility and Baseload capacity for energy policy makers. The official import dependence for gas is 72%. That also raises a question mark for energy security.
3. The coal capacity underwent minimal alteration as it surged from 10.8 GW to a remarkable 19.4 GW. Between 1990-2000 many additions took place. But due to environmental awareness and competition from renewable energy no growth took place. The capacity of lignite (domestic) reached a maximum of 11.1 GW in 2015; hard coal (imported) was an 8.3 GW in 2020.
4. From 2010 onwards, solar and wind deployment picked up tremendously: solar from 0 GW (2010) to 12.4 GW (2024), and wind from 0.8 GW (2010) to 12.8 GW (2024). The decrease in technology costs, the support provided by YEKDEM, and competitive auction (YEKA program) are among the triggering factors for this growth.

Yearly Capacity Implementation (2000-2024):

As shown in tbl:regional-solar-irradiance-potential-literature, the addition of capacity on a year-on-year basis demonstrates a cyclical pattern in response to policies, economic conditions and technology maturation:

: Regional Solar Irradiance and Potential {#tbl:regional-solar-irradiance-potential-literature}

Distribution of capacity by region (2024):

In Turkey, the research covers seven distinct regions. tbl:regional-wind-speed-and-potential shows the distribution of capacity on a regional basis. The resources have been put into existence and into use.

: Regional Wind Speed and Potential {#tbl:regional-wind-speed-and-potential}

Important patterns in different regions:

1. Marmara has 28.5 GW (26.6% of Turkey's total) of total capacity, but a 24.6% share of renewable energy generation. There's a low share of renewable generation in this region due to high electricity demand and a lack of local resources. Gas and coal mostly supply your baseload power, with respective outputs of 12.8 GW and 8.6 GW.
2. The wind energy potential in Türkiye is rich according to the Renewable Energy Studies Institute's 2021 report. According to a study conducted in 2021 that assessed the total wind resource of the country, the most suitable wind energy investment regions in Turkey are the Aegean, Marmara and Mediterranean Regions. Robust renewable deployment: high RE share (54.4%) on account of excellent wind resource (4.5 GW wind facility with 8.5 m/s average wind speed) and solar potential (3.2 GW solar with 1,750 kWh/m²/year irradiance).
3. Near 64 per cent of install capacity in Mediterranean region is renewables and the solar capacity is 4.8 GW which is about 30 per cent. Maximum share of renewable energy should be allotted to solar energy as its irradiance (1,800 kWh/m²/year) is higher.
4. Hydro Electric Projects in Black Sea has a potential of hydro projects which can lead to energy security and generation of power. Highest regional share of renewables (67.2%) Hydro-centric utilization of mountain topography and abundant water resources (8.2 GW hydro, 64% of regional capacity).
5. Eastern Anatolia leads the country in renewable energy consumption with a remarkable share of 87.1 percent. This region has hydroelectric plants that have a capacity of 5.7 GW which represent 81 per cent of overall capacity despite small fossil fuel plants (0.9 GW coal only).

Evolving Shares of Renewables and Fossils 2000 – 2024:

The changes in share of renewable and fossil sources are indicated in tbl:renewable-vs-fossil-share-evolution-2000-2024. It signifies a potential shift or evolution.

: Hydroelectric Potential by Major River Basin {#tbl:hydroelectric-potential-by-major-river-basin}