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D3Layer 5 / 10hard~4 min read

What are LSTM limitations for long-horizon forecasting?

8.2% energy balance violations; R²=0.43 at year 26; no physical constraints; extrapolation breakdown.

Key Takeaway
Pure data-driven fails.
Detailed Explanation
LSTM equations: , where , , , . Pure data-driven: no energy balance , no CF∈[0,1], no monotonicity. Produces CF>1, negative generation; 8.2% energy balance violations; R² degrades 0.91→0.43 at year 26 (extrapolation failure).
Why It Matters
Research significance: Baseline limitation.
Energy policy relevance: Model choice.
Methodological contribution: ENSM motivation.
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