Assumption Registry

All major model assumptions with basis, value, and uncertainty level. Each assumption links to the relevant experiment runs that use it. Policy analysts should treat high-uncertainty assumptions as key sensitivity drivers.

💡 Sensitivity note: Carbon price (2030 and 2053) and battery CAPEX are the highest-uncertainty assumptions. Explore their impact in the Scenario Simulator →

Demand

Annual electricity demand growthmedium uncertainty

3.2% p.a. (2023–2035), 2.1% p.a. (2035–2053)

Basis: TÜİK historical trend + TEIAS 2023–2030 projection

Technology

Solar PV CAPEX 2030 targetmedium uncertainty

$280/kW (utility-scale)

Basis: IRENA 2022 renewable power cost report, central scenario

Onshore wind CAPEX 2030low uncertainty

$900/kW

Basis: IRENA 2022 renewable power cost report

Li-ion battery pack cost 2030high uncertainty

$65/kWh

Basis: BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook 2023

Hydropower new capacity ceilinglow uncertainty

33.5 GW (current: 32.5 GW)

Basis: TEIAS 2023 expansion plan; limited undeveloped sites

Policy

Carbon price 2030high uncertainty

€80/tCO₂ (EU ETS forward, central)

Basis: Refinitiv carbon market analytics, Oct 2023

Carbon price 2053very high uncertainty

€160/tCO₂ (extrapolated, NGFS Net-Zero 1.5°C)

Basis: NGFS Phase 4 climate scenarios

Coal plant retirement schedulemedium uncertainty

All lignite plants retired by 2038

Basis: Government NDC commitment; 2038 assumed as midpoint

Fuel

Natural gas import price 2030high uncertainty

€42/MWh (TTF equivalent)

Basis: IEA World Energy Outlook 2023, Stated Policies Scenario

Grid

Transmission grid expansion costmedium uncertainty

$180k/km (220 kV), $320k/km (380 kV)

Basis: TEIAS 2022–2026 investment programme disclosed costs

Economic

Social discount ratemedium uncertainty

7% real

Basis: Turkish government infrastructure project appraisal guidance

Model

RL environment foresight assumptionn/a uncertainty

Myopic (year-by-year) — not perfect foresight

Basis: Design choice to reflect realistic decision-making under uncertainty

12 assumptions documented · Last updated: January 2025 · Back to Appendix · Failure modes