Turkey's high dependence on imported fossil fuels—oil, natural gas, and coal—has long been a concern for energy security and the current account balance. A cointegration analysis of Turkey's energy dependency reveals the long-run relationship between energy imports, economic growth, and key macroeconomic variables.
Historical context — Turkey's energy import dependency has fluctuated with global prices, domestic demand growth, and policy interventions. The expansion of domestic renewable capacity—solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal—has begun to reduce the marginal dependency on imported fuels for electricity generation.
Outlook — The analysis supports the case for accelerated renewable deployment as a means of improving energy security. Reducing import dependency not only lowers exposure to price volatility but also improves the trade balance and supports macroeconomic stability. The 2053 net-zero target aligns with these objectives.